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有关中国流通产业安全的现有经验文献测算出一个具体的安全度数值,可称之为“基数安全度”方法,但在指标归类、赋权及判别标准上存在主观偏差问题。本文在指标选取中遵循可加性原则,避免了此类偏差,并基于外资商业地理布局非均衡性对指标值进行结构调整,基于外资商业历史发展轨迹对指标值进行趋势调整,测算出反映中国流通产业安全相对变化的“序数安全度”。结果显示,中国流通产业安全在2006-2011年间持续加速恶化,其中原因在于中国流通产业政策规制缺失,外资商业进入速度加快、地理分布越来越不均衡、整体实力增强,以及中国流通产业自下而上的“逆向型”开放路径。
The existing empirical literature on the safety of China’s circulation industry assesses a specific value of safety, which can be called the “cardinal safety” method, but there is a subjective bias in the criteria for classification, empowerment and criteria. This article follows the principle of additivity in the selection of indicators, avoids such deviation, and adjusts the index value based on the non-equilibrium of foreign commercial geography layout. Based on the trend of foreign commercial history, the trend of index value is adjusted, Circulation industry safety changes relative to the “ordinal safety”. The results show that the safety of China’s circulation industry continued to deteriorate between 2006 and 2011 due to the lack of policies and regulations in the circulation industry in China, accelerating foreign commercial access, more and more uneven geographical distribution, overall strength, and the fact that China’s circulation industry is under And on the “reverse type” open path.