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严峻的物价形势已成为影响当前我国宏观经济稳定运行的突出问题。本文通过VAR模型分析显示,长期看,1992年以来货币因素对CPI的贡献率为70.03%,货币始终是影响我国物价的主要因素;但2003年以来,影响物价的因素变得更为复杂,物价上涨主要由劳动力成本、通胀预期和货币因素共同拉动,其对CPI的贡献率分别为39.97%、26.73%和25.19%,输入性通胀因素对CPI的贡献率为8.1%。因此,现阶段稳定物价水平不仅要注重控制货币供应,更应注重劳动生产率的提高和通胀预期的管理。
The severe price situation has become a prominent issue affecting the steady operation of China’s macroeconomy. The VAR model analysis shows that in the long run, the contribution rate of currency to the CPI has been 70.03% since 1992. The currency has always been the main factor affecting the price in our country. However, since 2003, the factors affecting the price have become more complicated. The price The increase was mainly driven by labor costs, inflation expectations and monetary factors. The contribution rates to CPI were 39.97%, 26.73% and 25.19% respectively, and the contribution rate of input inflation to CPI was 8.1%. Therefore, at this stage of stabilizing the price level, we should not only pay attention to controlling the money supply, but should also pay more attention to the improvement of labor productivity and the management of inflation expectations.