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本文使用经济政策不确定性指数考察2007-2013年中国A股市场,经济政策不确定性对分析师盈余预测修正的影响。在控制了宏观经济因素后,研究结果表明随着经济政策不确定性加大,分析师倾向于负向修正盈余预测,支持分析师“保守主义”假说。此外,券商和公司地理邻近以及公司的抗风险能力能够显著缓解这种负向影响。本文从经济政策不确定性视角提供了分析师盈余预测修正的经验证据,丰富了分析师盈余预测修正行为研究领域的文献。
In this paper, we use the index of economic policy uncertainty to examine the impact of the uncertainty of economic policy on the correction of the earnings forecast of China’s A-share market in 2007-2013. After controlling for macroeconomic factors, the results show that as economic policy uncertainty increases, analysts tend to negatively correct earnings forecasts and support analysts’ “conservative” hypotheses. In addition, the geographical proximity of brokers and companies as well as the company’s anti-risk ability can significantly mitigate this negative effect. This essay provides empirical evidence of the correction of earnings forecast by analysts from the perspective of economic policy uncertainty and enriches the literature in the field of analysts’ earnings forecasting and corrective actions.