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本文提出了一个病害普遍率与严重度关系(Ⅰ—S关系)模型——Gompertz衍生模型: S=exp[-a(-lnI)b] (a>0,1≥b>0) Gompertz衍生模型具有描述Ⅰ—S关系的一般特点,在有效取值区间(0～100%)内,可以描述Seem(1984)所提出的Ⅰ—S关系的各种类型。文中对各参数的流行学意义,参数变异情况和其所代表的Ⅰ—S关系类型进行了较详细的讨论,并描述了参数的非线性求解过程. 在多组Ⅰ—S关系数据上的拟合结果表明,Gompertz衍生模型有较强的数据拟合能力,在大多数情况下,拟合结合优于Seem(1984)的综述中所引用的两个Ⅰ—S关系模型。
In this paper, we propose a Gompertz derivative model based on Gompertz derived model (S-exp [-a (-lnI) b] (a> 0,1≥b> 0) Has the general characteristics of describing the relationship of I-S, and various types of I-S relationships proposed by Seem (1984) can be described within the useful range of values (0-100%). In this paper, we discuss in more detail the epidemiological significance, the variation of parameters and the types of I-S relationships that they represent, and describe the nonlinear process of the parameters.Under multiple sets of I-S relationship data, The combined results show that the Gompertz derived model has a strong data fitting ability and in most cases, the fitted binding is superior to the two I-S relational models cited in the review of Seem (1984).