不论从静态现行指标还是动态先行指标分析,都没有理由说中国今年的经济增长将出现不正常的减速最近关于增长减速、通胀恶化、货币政策“超调”等问题已成为人们关注的焦点。中国经济形势究竟如何判断?我们认为,中国经济增长是正常的,通货膨胀是可控的,货币政策并未过度紧缩。虽然国内经济的持续增长存在许多结构性的问题,世界经济近期和未来都存在许多不确定因素,中国经济增长确有诸多远虑,但是没有太大的近忧。 There is no reason to say that there will be an abnormal deceleration in China’s economic growth this year, both from the static current indicator and the dynamic first-mover indicator. Recently, the issues concerning the slowdown of growth, the worsening of inflation and the monetary policy “overshoot” have become the focus of attention . How can we judge the economic situation in China? We think that China’s economic growth is normal, inflation is manageable, and monetary policy is not overly tight. Although there are many structural problems in the continuous growth of the domestic economy, there are many uncertainties in the world economy both in the near future and in the future. There are indeed many long-term prospects for the economic growth in China, but there is not much concern.