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基于油气田（井）开发过程中产量数据的变化形态，提出了一种由高等数学理论公式推演出的适合于油气田（井）开发全过程拟合及预测分析的方法。认为已发表的拟合及预测油气田（井）产量的文章中，所引用的计算实例大多经过精心挑选，而现场实际生产数据是有波动的，特别是油气田（井）开发过程中含有开发战略思想调整等人为因素时，产量数据的上下波动更显著。作者采用前苏联北塔夫罗波夫佩拉基阿金气田１９５７～１９７７年的生产数据和我国白杨河油田（开发４０余年，已进入枯竭期）的生产数据，未作任何校正和修改，直接用于文中的实例计算。白杨河油田生产数据的拟合效果参数为５．４％，表明该方法计算简便快捷，拟合预测的准确性较高，平均相对误差仅１．０５％，具有较强的实用价值。表２参３（陈志宏摘）
Based on the variation of production data during the development of oil and gas fields (wells), a method suitable for fitting and predicting the whole process of oil and gas field (well) development was deduced from the advanced mathematical theory formula. In the published article on fitting and predicting oil and gas field (well) production, most of the cited examples are carefully selected and actual field production data fluctuate, especially in the development of oil and gas fields (wells) Adjustment and other human factors, the fluctuation of output data is more significant. Based on the production data from 1957 to 1977 in the former Soviet Union’s Northern Tafropov-Pelaki’ajin gas field and the production data of the Baiyanghe oilfield (which has been in development for more than 40 years and into the depletion period) in China, without any correction or modification, Directly used in the article instance calculation. The fitting effect parameter of production data of Baiyanghe Oilfield is 5.4%, which shows that the method is simple and quick, and the accuracy of fitting prediction is high. The average relative error is only 1.05%, which has strong practical value. Table 2 Reference 3 (Chen Zhihong picks)