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目的在村级尺度上探索杭州市萧山区2008年5月-2015年手足口病的时空动态变化,为预防和控制手足口病提供参考。方法通过“中国疾病预防控制信息系统”获取萧山区手足口病发病数据。在村、社区尺度,利用ArcGIS 10.2软件,对手足口病历年资料采用Moran’sⅠ指数进行全局空间自相关分析,采用SaTScan 9.2软件进行回顾性时空重排扫描统计探测聚集区。应用反距离加权插值法,制作2014年手足口病时空变化图。结果 2008年5月至2015年,萧山区手足口病年均发病率为61.07/10万,主要发病高峰为4-7月。除2008年外,其余年份手足口病表现为正的全局空间自相关,Moran’sⅠ值在0.0721~0.4172之间,呈增加趋势。2008-2009年未发现时空聚集区,2010-2015年共探测到16个聚集区,包括227个村、社区。2014年,手足口病波及的村、社区从1月份34个快速增加到4月29日的234个。结论萧山区手足口病具有明显的地区分布规律,存在时空聚集性,应重视城乡接合部和工业开发区附近的村、社区的手足口病防控。
Objective To explore the spatio-temporal dynamics of hand-foot-mouth disease in Xiaoshan District of Hangzhou city from May 2008 to 2015 in order to provide a reference for prevention and control of hand-foot-mouth disease. Methods The incidence data of hand, foot and mouth disease in Xiaoshan District were obtained through “China Disease Prevention and Control Information System”. At the village and community scales, global spatial autocorrelation analysis of Moran’sⅠ index was performed using ArcGIS 10.2 software, and Sampling 9.2 year retrospective spatial and temporal rearrangement scanning was used to detect the aggregation area. The anti-distance weighted interpolation method was used to make the spatio-temporal change of HFMD in 2014. Results From May 2008 to 2015, the annual incidence rate of HFMD in Xiaoshan District was 61.07 / 100000, the main peak of incidence was from April to July. Except for 2008, hand-foot-mouth disease showed positive global spatial autocorrelation for the rest of the year, and the Moran’s I value increased from 0.0721 to 0.4172. No space-time gathering area was found during 2008-2009. From 2010 to 2015, a total of 16 gathering areas were detected, including 227 villages and communities. In 2014, the number of villages and communities affected by hand-foot-mouth disease rapidly increased from 34 in January to 234 at April 29. Conclusion Hand-foot-mouth disease in Xiaoshan District has obvious regional distribution and spatiotemporal aggregation. Prevention and control of hand-foot-mouth disease in villages and communities near urban-rural junction and industrial development zone should be emphasized.