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以CCMP(Cross-Calibrated,Multi-Platform)风场驱动海浪模式SWAN(Simulating Waves Nearshore),对台风“米雷”所致台风浪进行精细化数值模拟,进而计算大范围海域的击水概率,为超低空飞行器的航迹规划提供科学依据,提高其生存能力、隐蔽突防能力.结果表明:(1)模拟的海浪数据具有较高精度,模拟值略大于观测值.(2)“米雷”的台风中心不位于波高的大值中心,也不位于波高的低值中心,而是位于高值中心与低值中心交界的地方,这是由于台风中心存在一小范围的无风区和涌浪效应所致.(3)台风“米雷”在北上过程中,大浪区主要分布于第四象限,而不完全是传统的危险半圆.(4)击水概率的大值区主要分布于第四象限,在大浪区的击水概率明显高于其余海域,大值区甚至在30%以上.
Based on CCMP (Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform) wind farm SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore), the numerical simulation of typhoon waves caused by typhoon “Mile ” is carried out, and then the probability of water attack over a large area is calculated. The results show that: (1) the simulated wave data has higher accuracy and the simulated value is slightly larger than the observed value. (2) Ray’s typhoon center is not located in the center of the great waves of Bourbon or in the low center of Bourdough, but at the junction of the high and low centers, due to the small area of the wind-free zone at the center of the typhoon (3) Typhoon “Mile ” In the process of going up to the north, the big waves are mainly distributed in the fourth quadrant, not the traditional dangerous semi-circle. (4) Distributed in the fourth quadrant, the probability of striking water in the Big Wave Region is significantly higher than that in the rest of the sea. The large value region is even above 30%.