根据故障诊断的特点,将概率信息引入模糊Petri网,提出了模糊、概率Petri网模型,简称模糊概率网。研究基于模糊概率网模型进行故障诊断的方法,利用概率信息处理反向推理中冲突消解问题,提高了诊断效率;利用模糊信息计算诊断结果的可信度;提出了一种反向推理机制,给出了算法。最后,以机械手掉刀为例,对该诊断方法进行了说明。 According to the characteristics of fault diagnosis, the probability information is introduced into fuzzy Petri nets, and a fuzzy and probabilistic Petri nets model is proposed, which is called fuzzy probability nets for short. This paper studies the method of fault diagnosis based on fuzzy probability network model, and uses the probability information to deal with the problem of conflict resolution in reverse reasoning to improve the diagnostic efficiency. The fuzzy information is used to calculate the credibility of the diagnostic results. A reverse reasoning mechanism is proposed Out of the algorithm. Finally, taking the manipulator as an example, this method is explained.