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目的：通过对浙江省１９９０～１９９６年孕产妇死亡动态分析，预测１９９７～２０００年浙江省孕产妇死亡率。结果：浙江省孕产妇死亡率呈逐年下降趋势（Ｐ＜０．０５）。按不同地区分析，一类地区的孕产妇死亡率无线性趋势（Ｐ＞０．０５）；二、三类地区孕产妇死亡率呈下降趋势（Ｐ＜０．０５）。按死因分析，一、二类地区的妊娠合并内科疾病死亡呈下降趋势（Ｐ＜０．０５），三类地区产科原因出血死亡呈下降趋势（Ｐ＜０．０５）。作影响这些死因的多元逐步回归分析时，发现住院分娩率、高危住院分娩率对全省孕产妇死亡率有影响，尤其住院分娩率对三类地区的产科原因出血死亡关系密切，早孕检查率影响一类地区的妊娠合并内科疾病死亡。根据１９９０～１９９６年浙江省孕产妇死亡率的动态分析，预测到２０００年孕产妇死亡率将降至１５．４７／１０万。
Objective: To predict the maternal mortality rate in Zhejiang Province from 1997 to 2000 through the dynamic analysis of maternal death from 1990 to 1996 in Zhejiang Province. Results: The maternal mortality rate in Zhejiang Province showed a declining trend year by year (P <0.05). According to the analysis of different regions, the maternal mortality rate in one type of area showed no linear trend (P> 0.05); the maternal mortality rate in the second and third types showed a decreasing trend (P <0.05). According to the analysis of cause of death, the death rate of pregnancy-associated medical diseases in the first and second regions showed a decreasing trend (P <0.05), and the death rate of bleeding in obstetric causes in the three categories showed a decreasing trend (P <0.05). As a result of multiple stepwise regression analysis of these causes of death, it was found that hospital delivery rate and high-risk hospital delivery rate had an impact on the maternal mortality rate in the province. In particular, the hospital delivery rate was closely related to obstetric-related bleeding deaths in three types of areas, A category of pregnancy with medical deaths. According to the dynamic analysis of maternal mortality in Zhejiang Province from 1990 to 1996, it is predicted that the maternal mortality rate will drop to 15.47 / 100,000 by 2000.