论文部分内容阅读
马尔萨斯理论在史学上被广泛应用。马尔萨斯认为人口的增长导致饥饿和社会危机,随之而来的是人口数量的减少、消费增加,随后人口数量又开始增加。人口数量的稳定波动就是人口循环周期。20世纪30年代俄国经济学家雅什诺夫在史学研究中第一次揭示了马尔萨斯人口循环理论。随后W.阿贝尔和M.波斯坦在欧洲史研究方面运用了该理论。20世纪下半叶人口循环理论得到了深入的研究,尤其受到法国年鉴派史学家布罗代尔等人的重视。随后,J.戈尔斯通的人口结构理论为人口循环理论的发展注入了新的活力。近几年以J.卡姆罗斯、P.图尔钦为代表的学者广泛采用数学模拟方法研究人口循环理论,运用这一方法可将人口循环周期分为增长阶段、紧缩阶段和生态危机阶段。此外,运用人口循环理论取得的研究成果有助于对社会和经济发展做出预测。
Malthus theory is widely used in history. Malthus considered the increase in population leading to hunger and social crisis, followed by a decrease in the population, an increase in consumption, and a subsequent increase in the population. The steady fluctuation of the population is the population cycle. The nineteen thirties Russian economist Yashunov in history study for the first time revealed Malthus population cycle theory. Later, W. Abel and M. Postein applied this theory in the study of European history. In the second half of the 20th century, the population cycle theory has been deeply studied, especially by the French Annals historian Braudel et al. Subsequently, J. Goldstone’s demographic theory infused new vitality into the development of the theory of population cycles. In recent years, scholars represented by J. Camrose and P. Turchin have widely adopted mathematical simulation methods to study population cycle theory. This method can be used to divide the population cycle into three stages: growth stage, austerity stage and ecological crisis stage. In addition, research results based on the theory of population cycles help predict social and economic development.