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挖掘中国技术进步方向产生根源的前沿成果鲜见且多集中于用总量因素指标进行分析,而用结构化因素指标解释技术进步偏向性显然更具说服力。本文基于SITC分类和BEC分类的二维数据揭示了中国1992~2014年要素密集度视角的资本品、中间品和消费品进口结构特征:资本品进口贸易结构波动较大并呈现倒“U”形变化,中间品和消费品进口贸易结构变化相似且均呈现出前低后高的“M”形变化。通过协整和误差模型检验了资本品、中间品和消费品等进口贸易结构和自主研发结构对中国相对增进型技术进步的影响,研究表明:短期对其促进的有资本品和中间品进口贸易结构,而自主研发结构和消费品进口贸易结构对其存在抑制作用;长期自主研发结构和消费品进口贸易结构促进了相对增进型技术进步,中间品进口贸易结构作用方向相反,资本品进口贸易结构作用甚微。
The cutting-edge results of mining the root causes of China’s technological progress are rare and more concentrated on the analysis of indicators of aggregate factors. However, it is obviously more convincing to explain the progress of technology progress using structural indicators. Based on the two-dimensional data of SITC classification and BEC classification, this paper reveals the import structural features of capital goods, intermediate goods and consumer goods from the point of view of element intensity in China from 1992 to 2014: the import trade structure of capital goods fluctuates greatly and presents “U” The structural changes in imports, imports of intermediate goods and consumer goods have similar changes and show a “M” shape with low front and rear height. Through the co-integration and error models, we examine the effects of import trade structure, such as capital goods, intermediate goods and consumer goods, and independent R & D structure on the relative improvement of technological progress in China. The results show that: in the short term, the import trade structure with capital goods and intermediate goods , While the independent R & D structure and the structure of the import trade of consumer goods have a restraining effect on them. The long-term independent research and development structure and the import trade structure of consumer goods promote the relative improvement of technological progress. The import trade structure of the intermediate goods plays a role in the opposite direction and the import structure of capital goods plays only a minor role .