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电力需求分析是支撑电力发展与改革事业的基本理论依据,然而,电力需求的特殊性增加了这一领域研究的难度。本文利用动态局部调整模型和动态面板估计方法,以2003—2013年的中国省际面板数据为基础,深入分析了基于全国和区域视角的中国电力需求特征。本文发现,忽略电力需求的引致性、电力商品属性的多维性和电力技术的通用目的技术特性将使模型设定和研究结论产生偏误。通过建立动态局部调整模型、筛选关键控制变量和解决内生性问题,本文强调了经济发展中的结构性因素对电力需求的重要影响,工业化、城镇化、非公经济占比提高、城乡差距缩小都是促进长期电力需求增长的重要因素,而电力市场化改革和经济对外开放则是促进可持续和绿色化发展的推动力。基于全国和区域视角的电力需求特征并不相同,各种经济结构因素的影响均因东、中、西部的划分而存在明显差异,制定电力发展与改革政策必须考虑地区差异性。特别地,根据区域价格弹性差异,中部地区相对更宜挑选出新一轮电力体制改革的试点省份。
Electricity demand analysis is the basic theoretical basis for supporting the development of electric power and reform. However, the particularity of electric power demand has increased the difficulty of research in this field. Based on China’s provincial panel data from 2003 to 2013, this paper uses dynamic local adjustment model and dynamic panel estimation method to deeply analyze China’s electricity demand characteristics based on national and regional perspectives. This paper finds that ignoring the cause of power demand, the multidimensional nature of power commodity attributes and the general purpose technical characteristics of power technology will lead to errors in model setting and research conclusions. By setting up a dynamic local adjustment model, screening key control variables and solving endogenous problems, this paper emphasizes the important influence of structural factors in economic development on electricity demand. Industrialization, urbanization, the increase of non-public economy and the narrowing of urban-rural gap Is an important factor in promoting the growth of long-term electricity demand. Market-oriented electricity reform and economic opening-up are the driving forces for promoting sustainable and green development. The characteristics of electricity demand are not the same based on the national and regional perspectives. The influences of various economic structural factors are all significantly different due to the division of the east, the middle and the west. The development of power development and reform policies must take into account the regional differences. In particular, according to the difference in regional price elasticity, the central region should be relatively more likely to pick out a new round of pilot provinces for power system reform.