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文章深入了解了GM(1,1)模型的内容和原理,提出了一种改进该模型的方法,研究灰色状态马尔柯夫模型和对预测值确定的影响,通过选取2003年~2010年我国煤炭生产量来对比传统和改进后GM(1,1)模型的预测误差率和精度。实践证明基于改进灰色数学模型预测出来的煤炭产量十分接近实际产量,误差值远小于采取传统GM(1,1)计算出来的数值,实用价值和参照价值极高。
The article has a deep understanding of the content and principle of the GM (1,1) model, puts forward a method of improving the model, studies the Markov model of gray state and the impact on the determination of the forecast value. By selecting the coal of China Production quantity to compare the prediction error rate and accuracy of the traditional and improved GM (1,1) models. It has been proved that the output of coal based on the improved gray mathematical model is very close to the actual output, the error is far less than the value calculated by the traditional GM (1,1), and the practical value and reference value are very high.