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2010年的种种迹象显示,在经历三十年高速增长后,中国已进入中低速增长时期。作为经济的晴雨表,中国股市将如何映照新旧增长方式的转换-独立评论人袁剑给出的答案是“一个超级熊市”。中国已经进入一个由高速增长到中低速增长的转折时期。在我看来,中国目前出现的超级信贷泡沫,正是由于过高估计了中国经济潜在增长能力并因此制定了不切实际的经济增长目标所引致的。如果说在金融危机之初,速度的急剧下滑是中国经济最为迫近的风险的话,那么现在,两种风险与我们都同样接近:一方面是经济增长急速下滑的风险,另一方面则是通胀上升及泡沫即刻破裂的风险。这大概就是温家宝所说的宏观调控两难困境的真实底蕴所在。
All the signs of 2010 show that after three decades of rapid growth, China has entered a period of low-speed growth. As a barometer of the economy, how does the Chinese stock market reflect the transformation of old and new growth patterns? The answer given by independent critic Yuan Jian is “a super bear market.” China has entered a turning point from high-speed growth to medium-low growth. In my opinion, the current super-credit bubble in China is caused precisely by overestimating the potential growth potential of China’s economy and therefore setting unrealistic economic growth targets. If at the beginning of the financial crisis, the sharp decline in speed was the most impending risk for China’s economy, then now both risks are just as close to ours as the risk of a sharp decline in economic growth on the one hand, and inflation on the other And the bubble immediately rupture risk. This is probably the true premise of what Wen Jiabao called the macro-control dilemma.