统计表明在浅源强震序列中,发生晚期强余震的机会约为百分之五十。越是大地震越容易发生。但预报晚期强余震比较困难。本文着重分析了晚期强余震的特点,并据此提出了预报的三个步骤:序列初期判断是否将发生晚期强余震;三个要素的短期预报;最后的临震预报。 Statistics show that in the shallow source strong earthquake sequence, the chance of late strong aftershocks is about 50%. The more earthquakes the more likely to happen. However, the prediction of strong aftershocks in the late stage is more difficult. In this paper, the characteristics of late strong aftershocks are analyzed emphatically, and three steps of forecasting are put forward accordingly: Whether the late strong aftershocks will occur in the early stage of the sequence, the short-term forecast of the three elements and the last quake prediction.