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房地产调整是否已到位?房地产建设活动下滑恐怕仍会继续。我们预计2015全年新开工面积再跌10-15%,其对在建活动的拖累会持续到明年。政策宽松可以缓和、但难以完全扭转房地产建设活动的下行趋势。货币宽松还会走多远?为避免货币信贷条件被动收紧,央行已多次降息、降准。为稳增长、防风险,我们预计宽松的货币政策会继续。
Real estate adjustment is in place? I am afraid that the decline in real estate construction activities will continue. We expect an additional 10-15% drop in new start-up area for FY15 and its drag on construction activities will continue until next year. Loose policy can ease, but it is difficult to completely reverse the downward trend in real estate construction activities. How far will monetary easing? To avoid the passive tightening of monetary and credit conditions, the central bank has cut interest rates on many occasions. To stabilize growth and prevent risks, we expect loose monetary policy will continue.