方法依据现场取得的少量样本，应用灰色动态趋势预测理论，预测高含硫油井在不同含水期的硫化物应力腐蚀速率。目的为高含硫油井在不同含水期采取防腐措施提供理论依据。结果通过对预测数据进行残差检验、关联度检验，其平均相对误差为０７８５％，最大相对误差为２４％，关联度ＲＫ０≥０６３，达到了预测精度。结论该方法所需样本数（项目、数据）少，可靠性高，预测结果可用于指导现场生产。 Methods Based on a few samples obtained from the field, the gray dynamic trend prediction theory was applied to predict the stress corrosion rate of sulfide in high-sulfur oil wells at different water-cut periods. The purpose is to provide a theoretical basis for taking anti-corrosion measures of high sulfur oil wells in different water cut periods. Results By means of residual test and correlation test, the average relative error was 0785%, the maximum relative error was 24%, and the correlation RK0≥063, which reached the prediction accuracy. Conclusion The method requires fewer samples (items, data) and high reliability, and the prediction results can be used to guide on-site production.