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建立珠江三角洲及河口湾一、二维不稳定流连接数学模型 ,假定珠江河口治理规划已全面实施并完成 ,然后针对典型洪潮年的水文条件 ,分析计算海平面上升 10～ 3 0cm后珠江三角洲地区洪潮水位的变化。经过“94·6”洪水过程模拟计算 ,得出海平面上升后 ,珠江三角洲中下游地区洪水位将上升 5～ 2 9cm ,以河口附近地区上升值最大 ,向上游逐渐减小 ,同时潮流河口上升值大于径流河口。经过“93·9”、“74·7”台风暴潮模拟计算 ,得出海平面上升后 ,珠江三角洲中下游地区风暴潮水位将上升 11～ 3 4cm ,口门附近上升值最大。经过 3种洪潮年型最高水位组合模拟计算 ,得出海平面上升 3 0cm后 ,珠江河口八大口门除崖门和虎跳门外 ,其它 6个口门潮水位将高出 5 0年一遇潮水位 12～ 4 3cm。
The mathematical model of one-dimensional and two-dimensional unsteady flow connections in the Pearl River Delta and estuaries is established, assuming that the Pearl River Estuary governance plan has been fully implemented and completed. Then, aiming at the hydrological conditions in a typical flood year, the Pearl River Delta Regional flood tide changes. After the “94 · 6” flood process simulation calculation, we can see that after the sea level rises, the flood level in the middle and lower reaches of the Pearl River Delta will rise by 5 ~ 29cm, with the maximum in the estuary near the estuary and the upward trend in the estuary. At the same time, Larger than the runoff estuary. After the “93 · 9” and “74 · 7” typhoon wave simulations, we can see that after the rise of sea level, the storm surge in the middle and lower reaches of the Pearl River Delta will rise by 11 ~ 34cm and the maximum value near the entrance will rise. After the simulation of the maximum flood level of three flood patterns, it is concluded that after the sea level rises to 30 cm, except the Yamen Gate and Hujian Gate, the other eight gates of the Pearl River estuary will have the highest tide level in 50 years Tide water level 12 ~ 4 3cm.