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为合理评估农业旱灾风险,文章从危险性、暴露性、灾损敏感性、抗旱能力四个方面分析各地区风险等级,建立正态云评估模型。结果表明,淮北、亳州、宿州、蚌埠、阜阳农业旱灾风险为中险;淮南、合肥淮河流域、滁州淮河流域、六安淮河流域为轻险。评估模型实现评语与评估指标值间不确定映射,体现旱灾评估中随机性,为安徽省淮河流域农业旱灾防控提供科学决策参考。
In order to reasonably assess the risk of agricultural drought, this paper analyzes the risk levels of each region from four aspects: danger, exposure, disaster sensitivity and drought resistance, and establishes a normal cloud assessment model. The results showed that the risk of agricultural drought in Huaibei, Bozhou, Suzhou, Bengbu and Fuyang was medium risk. Huainan, Huaihe River in Hefei, Huaihe Basin in Chuzhou and Liu’an Huaihe River Basin were lightly insured. Evaluation model to achieve uncertainty between the evaluation index and the mapping index to reflect the randomness in drought assessment for the prevention and control of agricultural droughts in the Huaihe River Basin in Anhui Province to provide a scientific decision-making reference.