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由于资料、数据的关系,学界对中国在20世纪初期的经济绩效进行了较多的探讨。以黄宗智的“过密化”理论和罗斯基的“增长论”为其两端,展开了激烈的争论。本文在总结国内外相关文献的基础上,首先通过较详实的历史统计资料,对我国1914—1936年的经济发展情况给出了一个简明的支持黄宗智的判断。然后,在微观层次上,进一步讨论了黄宗智总结的过密化现象背后的行为逻辑。本文不同意黄宗智的人口压力和生存压力的解释,认为过密化现象产生的原因中最重要的两点:一是棉花和粮食的相对价格的外生变化,它是小农由种粮向种棉转变的主要原因;二是种棉过程中内生的劳动力的增加,它是家庭农场和经营农场分化的主要原因。
Due to the relationship between data and data, academics have conducted more discussions on the economic performance of China in the early 20th century. With Huang’s “over-density” theory and Rosicky’s “theory of growth” as the two ends, launched a heated debate. On the basis of summarizing relevant literature both at home and abroad, this paper first gives a concise analysis of Huang Zongzhi’s judgment on the economic development of our country from 1914 to 1936 through more detailed historical statistics. Then, at the micro level, further discussion of Huang Zongzhi summary of the phenomenon behind the behavior of logic. This article disagrees with Huang Zongzhi’s explanation of the population pressure and survival pressure. He believes that the two most important reasons for the over-densification phenomenon are as follows: first, the exogenous change of the relative price of cotton and grain; The main reason for the change; the other is the increase of endogenous labor force in cotton production, which is the main reason for the differentiation of family farms and management farms.