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中国经济现在面临的不是经济下滑的风险,而是经济失稳的风险。2015年一季度,GDP同比增长仅7.0%,再创次贷危机后的新低。而同期,工业增加值、投资、消费、出口的增长全线低于预期。更为严重的是,包括钢铁在内的重点行业产能利用率已经下滑到危险境地。可以说,中国经济增长已接近失稳的边缘,如果政策调整出现滞后或方式不当,经济失速可能带来企业大规模倒闭、金融风险爆发及就业市场出现问题。
The Chinese economy is not facing the risk of economic downturn, but the risk of economic instability. In the first quarter of 2015, GDP grew only 7.0% year-on-year and hit a new low after the subprime mortgage crisis. Over the same period, the growth of industrial added value, investment, consumption and exports fell below expectations. More seriously, capacity utilization in key industries, including steel, has been declining to dangerous levels. It can be said that China’s economic growth is on the brink of instability. If the adjustment of policies lags behind or is not implemented in an appropriate manner, the economic slowdown may lead to the massive scale-out of enterprises, the outbreak of financial risks and the emergence of problems in the employment market.