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本文以震例、实验成果及粘滑理论,证实跨断层测量已经成为目前中短期预报地震的手段之一,不跨断层测量则效果较差。宁河水准点观测到的唐山地震前“临界破裂前兆蠕滑”,不同于圣安德烈斯蠕动断层震前的加速蠕滑,它是板内首次测到的大震前兆蠕滑,并更强有力地证实国内外各种岩石破裂实验中普遍观测到的前兆蠕动在震前存在。“临界破裂前兆蠕滑”可能是一种必然出现的前兆现象,因此具有一定的理论意义和实用价值。根据跨断层位移测量点预报地震的经验,可将前兆异常分为三级,列出各种干扰,建立构造、前兆二判式。这套判别系统经过验证不仅实用,且为地震预报提出了一条新的思路。
In this paper, we use earthquake cases, experimental results and stick-slip theory to prove that cross-fault surveys have become one of the means of short- and medium-term earthquake prediction. Before the Tangshan earthquake, the “pre-critical rupture creep slip” before the Tangshan earthquake observed by the Ninghe leveling point is different from the accelerated creep slip before the San Andreas peristaltic fault. It is the first large-scale precursor creep slip measured on the plate and is stronger It is strongly proved that the precursor peristalsis commonly observed in various rock fracture experiments at home and abroad existed before the earthquake. “Critical rupture precursor creep” may be an inevitable precursor phenomenon, so it has a certain theoretical significance and practical value. According to the experience of predicting earthquakes through the cross-fault displacement measurement points, the precursory anomalies can be divided into three levels, and all kinds of interferences are listed to establish the structure and the precursory bivariate criterion. This set of discriminating system is verified not only practical, but also provides a new idea for earthquake prediction.