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On November 21 of 2011, Pascal Lamy, director-general of World Trade Organization (WTO) warned in his annual report that the forecast for world export growth revised downwards to 5.8% in 2011 from the earlier estimate of 6.5%, because of the worsening of global economy in recent months. He also added that unilateral action to shield domestic industries will not solve global problems but might make things worse by triggering a spiral of tit-fortat reactions in which every country will lose.
The outlook for the global economy has worsened considerably in recent months. Risks and uncertainties are increasing, after the encouraging signals of recovery seen at the end of 2010. Global activity is slowing down, economic performance continues to be uneven across countries, debt levels and financial volatility are rising, high unemployment levels persist in many countries, and confidence has recently fallen sharply. These risks are aggravated by perceptions in markets that governments’ responses to these challenges have so far been inadequate.
According to his report, world trade has grown more slowly than expected in recent months. Developed economies have been hit by a number of problems ranging from shrinking global demand, to the impact of natural disasters, to issues related to national budgets, credit conditions, and the sovereign debt crisis. Trade growth in developing countries has also been adversely affected by global developments, including signs of overheating in some major emerging markets.
The economic recovery has so far not been strong enough to reduce significantly high levels of unemployment in many countries. As a
result, an upward trend was observed this year in the imposition of new trade restrictions. Data show that 339 new trade restrictive measures were recorded, which is 53% more than in the previous period. In particular, the number of new export restrictions has increased sharply; although accounting for only 19% of total restrictions during the monitoring period, export measures were the fastest-growing component.
Moreover, there is a growing perception that trade protectionism is gaining ground in some parts of the world as a political reaction to current local economic difficulties that trade restrictions are very poorly equipped to resolve. There are various signs of a revival in the use of industrial policy to promote national champions and of import substitution measures to back up that policy. Unilateral actions to shield domestic industries, although appealing from a narrow short-term perspective, will not solve global problems; on the contrary, they may make things worse by triggering a spiral of tit-for-tat reactions in which every country will lose. These developments are adding to the downside risks to the global economy.
Some countries have also adopted measures to facilitate trade, especially by reducing or temporarily exempting import tariffs, terminating trade remedies actions, and streamlining customs procedures. The sectors most affected by new trade restrictive measures are: base metals and products (iron and steel); machinery and mechanical appliances; organic chemicals; meat products; plastic and articles; transport equipment (motor vehicles); and cereals. Most of these sectors were already relatively heavily protected before the global crisis.
In the area of trade in services, Members are maintaining the general thrust of their policies and levels of market openness. Save for a few instances in which the original restrictive effect of policies has been attenuated and work-permit requirements for cer- tain categories of workers have been removed by a few countries, restrictive measures introduced in the last couple of years are still in place.
To resolve these problems, Pascal Lamy called for a multilateral trading system of great significance to deal with difficulties that adversely affected global trade integration. The multilateral trading system has been instrumental in maintaining trade openness during the global financial and economic crisis. The multilateral trading system has also helped countries navigate the crisis so far and resist protectionism. In a context of greater economic uncertainty and rising global risks, it is all the more important that the process of global trade opening continues;
In Special Report this issue, we are trying to explore several events happened in 2011 that are related to multilateral trading system in order to highlight the importance of trade openness. Meanwhile, we also hope that the process of global trade opening continues in the years ahead.