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运用计量分析方法分析了我国能源效率变化的原因和发展趋势,并给出了相关的建议。分析了工业化国家能源效率变化规律及波动原因;在总结国内研究现状的基础上,运用对数平均D氏指数方法分析了我国能源效率的变化原因,认为产业结构变化是2000年后我国能源效率下降的主要原因;运用误差修正模型技术分析了产业结构日益重型化条件下我国能源效率的变化趋势,并得出了随着产业结构重型化的形成和发展我国能源效率会不断降低的结论;最后,从改变经济结构标准、完善能源价格体系和加快发展现代服务业等方面分析了降低能源消耗、提高能源效率的途径。
Using the method of econometrics, this paper analyzes the causes and trends of energy efficiency change in China and gives some suggestions. Analyzed the law of energy efficiency change and the reason of fluctuation in industrialized countries; Based on the summary of the domestic research status, this paper analyzed the reason of change of energy efficiency in China by means of Logarithmic Mean D-index method, and thought that the change of industrial structure is the decline of energy efficiency in our country after 2000 The main reason for the change of energy efficiency in our country under the condition of increasingly heavy industrial structure is analyzed by using the error correction model technology and the conclusion that the energy efficiency of our country will continue to decrease with the formation and development of heavy industrial structure is concluded.Finally, From the aspects of changing the standard of economic structure, perfecting energy price system and accelerating the development of modern service industry, the ways of reducing energy consumption and improving energy efficiency are analyzed.