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随着我国生猪产业不断壮大和产业链不断拓展,生猪价格在上涨趋势中常常呈现出暴涨暴跌的不稳定态势,波动周期明显缩短,波动幅度也有所增大。利用大数据以及从大数据中挖掘有价值的信息,在生猪价格波动和稳定其价格的对策研究中具有现实意义。研究结果表明,猪肉价格的上升或者下降会引起生猪价格的同方向变化;仔猪价格的上升或者下降会引起生猪价格的同方向变化;生猪出栏量的增加或者减少并不会导致生猪价格的反方向变化;玉米价格的变化对生猪价格影响不大。多种因素价格的同时变化和共同影响必然导致生猪价格的上升或者下降,同样,生猪价格的变化也会反过来影响猪肉价格、仔猪价格等其它因素价格的上升或者下降。稳定生猪价格的政策启示:完善生猪价格的市场供需监测系统建设,稳定猪肉的市场零售价格;完善能繁母猪补贴和保险政策,保证仔猪供应,稳定仔猪价格;推动先进生产方式及合作模式,保证生猪市场供应;有效协调生猪产业链上各方利益,切实稳定生猪价格。
With the continuous growth of China’s pig industry and continuous expansion of its industrial chain, hog prices have always shown a volatile trend of rising and falling in the upward trend. The fluctuation cycle has been significantly shortened and the volatility has also risen. The use of big data and the mining of valuable information from big data are of practical significance in the research on the countermeasures of the fluctuation of the hog price and the stabilization of its price. The results show that the increase or decrease of pork price will cause the same change of hog prices. The increase or decrease of hog prices will lead to the same direction of hog price increase or decrease. The increase or decrease of hog size does not lead to the opposite direction of hog prices Change; changes in corn prices have little effect on hog prices. Simultaneous changes and common effects of many factors will inevitably lead to the rise or fall of hog prices. Similarly, changes in hog prices will in turn affect the price of pork, piglet prices and other factors to rise or fall. Policy implications for stabilizing hog prices: Improve the market supply and demand monitoring system for hog prices and stabilize the market retail prices of pork; Improve sow subsidies and insurance policies for sows and ensure the supply of piglets and stabilize the prices of piglets; Promote advanced modes of production and cooperation, Ensure the pig market supply; effectively coordinate the interests of all parties in the pig industry chain and effectively stabilize the pig prices.