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本文通过修正GEM模型而发展了一个引入垂直中间产品贸易和水平中间产品贸易对国际经济周期传导的全球经济理论模型(IMT-GEM),并利用1991-2014年中国与东亚9国(地区)间的面板数据对此进行了检验。研究发现,垂直专业化贸易对国际经济周期协动性具有显著、稳定的正向作用;且随着垂直专业化指数的提高,国际经济周期的协动性亦随之增强,从而丰富了“贸易—经济周期协动性之谜”的谜底理论。实证研究还发现,在对东亚经济周期协动性的传递上,除垂直专业化外,产业间贸易相对产业内贸易的作用较大,一些非贸易变量如FDI、产业结构差异度和政策协调程度的影响也不容忽视。研究结论对于合理把握垂直专业化贸易这把“双刃剑”、促进中国经济持续稳定增长具有一定启示。
This paper develops a global economic theoretical model (IMT-GEM) that introduces the vertical trade of intermediary products and the horizontal intermediary trade to the international economic cycle by amending the GEM model and makes use of the global economic model (IMT-GEM) between 1991 and 2014 in China and 9 East Asian countries Panel data to verify this. The study finds that vertical specialized trade has a significant and stable positive effect on the international economic cycle coordination. With the increase of the vertical specialization index, the synergies of the international economic cycles have also increased, thus enriching the “ Trade - the economic cycle of the mystery of the puzzle ”theory of the answer. Empirical studies also found that, in addition to vertical specialization, inter-industry trade plays a more important role in intra-industry trade than non-trade variables such as FDI, differences in industrial structure and degree of policy coordination The impact can not be ignored. The conclusion of the study has some enlightenment on the reasonable grasp of the “double-edged sword” of vertical specialized trade and the promotion of sustained and steady growth of China’s economy.