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在数学原理中,两个自变量相乘表达了两个独立的自变量的内在关联关系。为此,探索性提出物证特征出现率与物证特征符合率内在关联关系决定了物证特征关联总价值的假设,建立物证检验鉴定的数学模型,并分别给出反映各类物证内在规律的数学公式;同时,从剖析物证的层次与结构入手,提出了从宏观层次、中观层次、微观层次对物证特征进行统一分类的新方法。进而,提出了以客观概率与主观概率相结合的观点,分别阐述了物证特征出现率、物证特征符合率的量化方法。最后,提出了物证检验鉴定意见的量化表达的具体方法,以及运用贝叶斯原理统一用“似然比”确定证据强度的观点。
In mathematics, the two independent variables multiply and express the inherent relationship between two independent variables. Therefore, the hypothesis that the relationship between the appearance rate of physical evidence features and the conformity rate of physical evidence features has been exploratory has been established, which establishes the mathematical model of the physical evidence examination and identification, At the same time, starting from the analysis of the level and structure of physical evidence, this paper proposes a new method to classify the features of physical evidence from macro level, meso level and micro level. Furthermore, this paper proposes a method of combining the objective probability with the subjective probability, and expounds respectively the quantification method of the appearance rate of physical evidence features and the conformity rate of physical evidence features. Finally, we put forward the concrete method of quantitative expression of physical evidence examination and appraisal opinion, and the view of using “Bayes principle” to unify the strength of evidence with “likelihood ratio ”.