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目的分析和预测中国布鲁菌病(简称布病)发病率趋势,为制定公共卫生政策提供参考。方法采用线性回归方法分析2005—2015年中国布病发病率变化趋势;建立GM(1,1)模型,并对未来3年布病发病率进行预测。结果中国布病发病率呈快速上升趋势,APC值为11.88%(t=11.88,P<0.01);灰色GM(1,1)模型表达式为x_(k+1)=15.798 2e~((0.105 65k))-14.264 8,后验差比值为0.24,小误差概率为100%,利用该模型预测未来3年发病率(/10万)分别为5.05、5.61、6.24。结论中国布病发病率呈持续上升趋势,须加强健康教育、畜牧检疫、人群监测等措施,遏制上升趋势。
Objective To analyze and predict the incidence of brucellosis in China and provide a reference for the formulation of public health policies. Methods The linear regression method was used to analyze the trend of the incidence of brucellosis in China from 2005 to 2015. The GM (1,1) model was established and the incidence of brucellosis was predicted in the next 3 years. Results The incidence of brucellosis in China showed a rapid upward trend with an APC value of 11.88% (t = 11.88, P <0.01). The expression of gray GM (1,1) model was x k + 1 = 15.798 2e ~ 0.105 65k)) - 14.264 8. The posterior odds ratio is 0.24 and the small error probability is 100%. The prediction of the incidence of the next three years (/ 100,000) by this model is 5.05, 5.61 and 6.24 respectively. Conclusion The prevalence of brucellosis in China has been on an upward trend. Health education, animal husbandry and quarantine, and crowd monitoring should be strengthened to curb the upward trend.