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按照世界城市化演变规律可将中国城市化过程分为曲折发展、初期阶段和中期阶段三个阶段。本文通过协整分析认为:中国城市化和工业化是能源消费变动的原因,工业化是城市化的原因。不同城市化阶段对能源消费影响的差别在于:第一阶段能源消费增长主要受工业化驱动,而受城市化的影响较小;第二阶段能源消费主要受城市化影响很大,受工业化的影响较小;第三阶段城市化和工业化共同驱动能源消费的增长。
According to the evolution of urbanization in the world, the process of urbanization in China can be divided into three stages: twists and turns, the initial stage and the middle stage. Through cointegration analysis, this paper argues that: China’s urbanization and industrialization are the reasons for the changes in energy consumption, and industrialization is the reason for urbanization. The differences in energy consumption impact in different stages of urbanization lie in the fact that the growth of energy consumption in the first stage is mainly driven by industrialization but less affected by urbanization. The energy consumption in the second stage is mainly affected by urbanization and is more affected by industrialization than by urbanization Small; the third phase of urbanization and industrialization together to drive the growth of energy consumption.