经济学家有时候被人称为是马后炮专家:分析过去的事情头头是道,预言未来往往不那么灵光。的确是这样。差不多两年前,这里几乎没有人想到会发生的“东亚金融危机”爆发以后,一些非常自负的经济学者想做中国的克鲁格曼,到处演讲说人民币半年之内一定会贬值,洋洋得意地建议有钱人赶紧储备硬通货。现在好几个“半年”过去了,这些经济学者却似乎忘记了自己的预言。难怪,没有什么根底,难免存博彩心理。 经济活动不是物理实验,变数实在太多。这是因为经济活动是人的活动的总和,自然“人为”因素和心理因素发生作用的天地很大。按照钱学森先生的分类,社会经济系统和生命系统,是人类面对的最为复杂的“巨”系统。科学和文明,已经有几千年的发展。可是直到今天,人类科学或者说人类文明,对于人类身旁这两个巨系统的了解,还远远比不上对冥渺太空中那些迄今未曾访问过、并且将来若干世纪也恐难触及的星球的了解。所以平心而论,如果事后的分析能够让我们明白一些道理,还是应该有很大的生存意义。活要活个明白嘛,这就是价值。 Economists are sometimes referred to as horseback guns: analyzing the past is a head start, predicting the future is often less flashy. It is true. Almost two years ago, few thought of what happened here after the outbreak of the “East Asian financial crisis.” Some very self-interested economists want to be Krugerman in China. Everywhere they talk, the renminbi will certainly devalue in half a year. Rich people are advised to quickly reserve hard currency. Now that several “six months” have passed, these economists seem to have forgotten their own prophecies. No wonder, there is no foundation, it is inevitable deposit betting psychology. Economic activity is not a physical experiment, there are so many variables. This is because economic activity is the sum of human activities, and there is a world of natural “man-made” and psychological factors. According to Mr. Qian’s classification, socio-economic system and life system are the most complex “giant” systems that mankind faces. Science and civilization have been developed for thousands of years. But until today, human science or human civilization, the human understanding of these two giant systems, is far less than the insignificant space that has hitherto not been visited, and will be difficult to reach in the next few planets planet Understand. So, to be fair, if ex post facto analysis allows us to understand some truth, we should still have a great living meaning. Live to understand it, this is value.