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利用青海省20个草地生态监测站点2003—2011年监测的牧草、降水和相应年份的灾害监测调查资料分析表明,青海高原草地牧草产量与降水相关密切,8月末牧草产量与5—8月降水量相关系数均达到了0.001的相关性检验,建立了不同草地类型不同月份牧草产量与降水量的最优模拟方程;利用降水量距平百分率划分干旱等级,建立了干旱等级与牧草和牲畜损失的对应关系,实现了干旱和雪灾对草地、牲畜直接经济损失的定量评估.对比分析了干旱和雪灾灾害对畜牧业造成损失比例,将干旱和雪灾两个不同概念的灾害通过经济损失有机地联系起来,直观地表明了在不同等级的灾害情况下,损失造成的大小和比例.结果表明:随着灾害等级加重,雪灾造成的损失比例增大,在特大灾时,雪灾造成的损失是旱灾损失的2.5倍.评估模型符合草地牧草生长规律和畜牧业生产特征,实例评估符合畜牧业实际损失程度.因此,能够在降水偏少或偏多时对草地畜牧业评估服务中推广应用.
According to the monitoring data of 20 grassland ecological monitoring stations in Qinghai Province from 2003 to 2011, the monitoring data of pasture, precipitation and corresponding years showed that the pasture production in Qinghai Plateau was closely related to precipitation. The output of pasture in August was similar to the precipitation in May-August Correlation coefficient reached the correlation test of 0.001, established the optimal simulation equation of grass yield and precipitation in different months of different grassland types; divided the drought level by the percentage of precipitation anomaly, and established the correspondence between drought level and forage and livestock loss The relationship between drought and snowstorm on the direct economic losses of grassland and livestock was quantitatively evaluated.The proportions of losses caused by drought and snow disaster to livestock husbandry were compared and analyzed.The disasters of two different concepts of drought and snow disaster were organically linked through economic loss, The results show that as the level of disaster increases, the proportion of losses caused by the snowstorm increases, and in the case of a catastrophic disaster, the loss due to the snowstorm is 2.5 Times.The assessment model is in accordance with the lawn of grassland growth and the characteristics of animal husbandry production, The actual extent of the loss of livestock. Therefore, to promote the use of grassland and animal husbandry service at the time of assessment or above normal rainfall.