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通过对渤海湾西岸1895年以来11次风暴潮高水位的厘定,证实并确定了50年、100年、200年直至10000年一遇的风暴潮高水位值。定量评估了风增水与波浪对风暴潮高水位的贡献。进一步从地学角度讨论了21世纪10年间隔的海面上升量、地面下沉与围海造陆共同作用、海面上升引发的净增水效应及河口增水效应。根据上述各类参数,预测了至2050年的10年间隔、50~10000年不同重现期的极端水位,并讨论了地面下沉对风暴潮测量准确性的影响。认为当前的防潮堤(海垱)高度可抵御50~100年一遇的风暴潮的侵袭,但据所讨论的综合因素的影响,建议2020年防潮堤的高度应达到+4.8m,2030年达到+5.1m(85高程)。
Through the determination of the elevations of 11 storm surges in the west coast of the Bohai Gulf since 1895, the storm surge levels at 50, 100, 200 and 10000 years have been confirmed and confirmed. The contribution of wind-induced water surge and waves to storm surge height was quantitatively assessed. From the angle of geoscience, this paper discusses the rising amount of sea surface at the interval of 10 years in the 21st century, the joint action of ground subsidence and land reclamation and land reclamation, the net water-enhancing effect caused by the rising of sea surface and the water-enhancing effect of estuary. Based on the above parameters, the extreme water level at 10 years interval from 2050 to 50 ~ 10000 years is predicted, and the influence of ground subsidence on the accuracy of storm surge is discussed. It is considered that the current height of seawall can withstand 50-100 years of storm surge. However, according to the comprehensive factors discussed, it is suggested that the height of moisture-resistant bank in 2020 should reach + 4.8m and reach by 2030 + 5.1m (85 elevation).