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基于1952~2012年全国30个省份的面板数据,本文采用bootstrap面板因果检验方法,从考察投资和经济增长因果关联的视角对产能过剩和区域差异进行深入解析。研究表明:我国投资与增长因果关联的区域差异显著,绝大多数地区投资未能有效促进经济增长,而经济增长对投资的拉动作用普遍较强。因此,我国经济增长模式是否为通常所认为的投资驱动型有待商榷,而基于政府政策等外源性因素引致的投资水平应得到有效控制。
Based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 1952 to 2012, this paper uses the bootstrap panel causality test method to analyze in-depth analysis of overcapacity and regional differences from the perspective of causal correlation between investment and economic growth. The research shows that there are significant regional differences in the causal linkages between investment and growth in our country, that investment in the vast majority of regions fails to effectively promote economic growth, and that economic growth has a generally stronger pull on investment. Therefore, whether China’s economic growth mode is generally considered as an investment-driven issue remains to be discussed, and the level of investment due to external factors such as government policies should be effectively controlled.