几年前,我提出中国社会结构演变的4个可能趋势,即结构定型、精英联盟、寡头统治和赢者通吃。今天看,这4个趋势有的更加明显了,有的若隐若现。这4个趋势对中国未来的走向,会有根本性的影响。社会结构定型化不是反常现象,而是常规现象。在成熟的市场经济国家,其社会结构大体处于 A few years ago, I proposed four possible trends in the evolution of China’s social structure: structural stereotyping, elite coalition, oligarchy, and winner-take-all. Today, some of these four trends are more obvious, some looming. These four trends will have a fundamental impact on the future direction of China. The finalization of the social structure is not an anomaly, but a normal phenomenon. In a mature market economy country, its social structure is generally at