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本文运用市场供求法测度2000—2011年中国59个大中城市房地产泡沫,并建立空间动态面板模型研究房地产泡沫的区域间联动和空间传染效应。结果表明:各城市房地产泡沫爆发时点不完全一致,二三线城市的泡沫较为突出且波动较大;房地产泡沫存在区域间联动及空间传染效应,联动效应主要发生在地理邻近的城市之间,传染效应中经济相似性和信贷市场相似性的作用大于地理邻近性。
This article uses the market supply and demand method to measure the real estate bubble in 59 cities in China from 2000 to 2011, and establishes a dynamic model of the space to study the inter-regional linkage and spatial contagion effect of the real estate bubble. The results show that the real estate bubble in each city is not exactly the same at the outbreak of the real estate bubble, and the bubbles in the second and third tier cities are more prominent and volatile. The real estate bubble has interregional and spatial contagion effects. The linkage effect mainly occurs between cities in the geographical vicinity, The effect of economic similarity and credit market similarity is greater than geographic proximity.