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针对目前油田对油井压裂潜力预测的准确性仍不能满足开发规划需要的问题,采用边际成本与油藏工程相结合的分析方法,建立了油井压裂措施的经济界限模型;同时应用数理统计理论与多元线性回归方法结合,建立了油田不同开发区块不同压裂井产量预测模型。将以上建立的2个模型有机结合,确定了更加准确预测油井压裂潜力的方法,并应用该预测模型及方法对大庆油田葡北区块2口油井进行了普通压裂潜力预测。预测结果表明,这2口油井具有压裂潜力。压裂后,其累计增油量为1 512 t,实际投入产出比1∶4.05,达到了预测的效果。
In view of the fact that the accuracy of prediction of well fracturing potential in oilfields can not meet the needs of development planning at present, the economic limit model of fracturing measures for oil wells is established by using the analysis method of marginal cost and reservoir engineering. At the same time, mathematical fractal theory Combined with multivariate linear regression method, the production prediction model of different fracturing wells in different development blocks of oilfield is established. The above two models are combined organically to determine a more accurate method of predicting oil well fracturing potential. The prediction model and method are applied to predict the normal fracturing potential of two oil wells in the Pubei block in Daqing Oilfield. The forecast results show that these two wells have fracturing potential. After fracturing, the cumulative oil yield is 1 512 t, and the actual input-output ratio is 1: 4.05, which achieves the predicted result.