目的:探讨男性乳腺癌的病因概率的计算方法，为我国职业放射工作人员男性乳腺癌的病因判定提供理论基础。方法:利用日本原爆幸存者拟合得到的男性乳腺癌超额相对危险(ERR)模型与美国电离辐射生物效应委员会(BEIR)VII提供的女性乳腺癌超额绝对危险(EAR)模型两种方法，对既往1例被诊断为男性乳腺癌病例进行乳腺剂量及其病因概率的计算。结果:通过男性乳腺癌ERR模型计算病因概率(n PC)均值为94.6%，95%n PC上限为98.3%。女性乳腺癌EAR模型与女性乳腺癌发病基线，n PC均值为70.3%，95% n PC上限为153.3%，而采用男性乳腺癌发病率基线则n PC均值为99.2%。通过以上两种方法均可判定该男性所患乳腺癌是由职业性放射性暴露所致。n 结论:采用女性乳腺癌EAR模型和女性乳腺癌发病率基线计算95%n PC上限高于男性乳腺癌ERR模型，但对于女性乳腺癌EAR模型估算病因概率的不确定度还需进一步研究，同时建议将职业放射工作人员男性乳腺癌列入我国职业性放射性肿瘤名单，对职业性放射性肿瘤名单补充完善，使其更加科学合理，以满足潜在的索赔需求。n “,”Objective:To explore the probability of causation method ology of male breast cancer and to provide theoretical basis for the diagnosis of occupational radiogenic male breast cancer in China.Methods:Using the male excess relative risk model (EAR) fitted from the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and the female excess absolute risk model (ERR) provided by the Biological Effect of Ionizing Radiation Committee VII (BEIRVII), the breast dose and the probability of causation of the previous case of male breast cancer were calculated.Results:The average probability of causation (n PC) calculated by male ERR model was 94.6%, and the upper limit of 95% n PC was 98.3%. Using female EAR model and female breast cancer incidence, the average n PC was 70.3%, and the upper limit of 95% n PC was 153.3%. when male breast cancer incidence was used, the average n PC was 99.2%.By both methods, the male breast cancer patient could be determined to be caused by occupational radiation exposure.n Conclusions:The upper limit of 95% n PC calculated by female EAR model and female breast cancer incidence was higher than that by male ERR model.The uncertainty of probability of causation for female EAR model still need further research. Occupational radiogenic male breast was proposed to listed in occupational radiogenic neoplasms, which will make the list more perfect and scientific and reasonable to meet potential claims.n