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近年来,企业如何根据股票市场定价偏差选择有利的融资发行时机成为企业融资结构研究的热点问题之一。目前研究主要以市值账面比(M/B)作为股票定价偏差代理变量,然而市值账面比指标引起学术界很大争议,研究结论缺乏可靠性。本文根据中国股票市场高流动性特征选择股票换手率作为股票估价偏差变量,实证检验了股票换手率与企业外部融资发行时机的关系,以及对资本结构变动的影响途径和持续性。检验结果显示,股票换手率与权益融资具有显著的正相关关系,与债务融资负相关,但并不十分显著,表明中国上市公司确实存在股权融资的市场择时行为;股票换手率主要通过股权融资和股票收益对资本结构具有显著的负向影响,并可以持续到4至5年之久。研究结论表明,企业在股票价格高估时发行股权融资,低估时选择回购股票或发行债务融资,当前资本结构是企业过去融资发行市场时机的累积结果。
In recent years, how to choose a favorable financing issue timing according to the pricing deviation in the stock market has become one of the hot issues in the study of the financing structure of enterprises. However, the market-to-book ratio has caused much controversy in academia, and the conclusion of the study is lack of reliability. Based on the high liquidity of Chinese stock market, this paper chooses the stock turnover as the stock valuation bias variable, and empirically tests the relationship between the stock turnover rate and the timing of the issuance of external financing and the ways and persistence of the capital structure change. The test results show that there is a significant positive correlation between stock swap rate and equity financing, which is negatively related to debt financing, but not very significant, indicating that there is indeed a market timing behavior of equity financing in China’s listed companies. Equity financing and stock returns have a significant negative impact on the capital structure and can last from four to five years. The conclusion of the study shows that the current capital structure is the cumulative result of the timing of an enterprise’s issuance of financing in the past when the company issues equity financing when the stock price is overvalued, when it is underestimated, it chooses to repurchase shares or issue debt financing.