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随着改革开放中国经济的腾飞,宁夏经济得到了快速发展.尤其是宁夏的能源工业发展速度很快,使得经济的发展越来越依赖能源[1].但宁夏是全国资源相对贫瘠的省份之一,经济发展过度的依赖能源使得宁夏能源消耗量逐年增加.宁夏本地的能源有限,外来能源成本较高,解决好不断增长的能源消耗问题是宁夏经济发展的重要前提.对未来能源需求进行准确预测变的迫在眉睫.这对于制定合理的经济发展战略和能源安全战略有着重要的借鉴意义.采用1990到2012年宁夏能源消费量数据建立ARMA时间序列模型.用Eviews软件检验模型的可行性和应用性.用时间序列模型对宁夏未来能源消费量进行预测.从检验结果来看,此模型模拟值与真实值接近,误差率低,预测效果比较好.
With the rapid economic reform in China, Ningxia has enjoyed rapid economic growth, especially in Ningxia, where the energy industry is developing at a rapid pace, making economic development more and more dependent on energy sources.1 However, Ningxia is a relatively poorly resourced province in China First, the economic development over-reliance on energy makes Ningxia energy consumption increased year by year.Ningxia local energy is limited, high external energy costs, to solve the problem of growing energy consumption is an important prerequisite for economic development in Ningxia.The future of energy demand is accurate Forecasting is imminent.This is of great significance to formulate a reasonable economic development strategy and energy security strategy.An ARMA time series model is established by using Ningxia energy consumption data from 1990 to 2012. The feasibility and applicability of the model are verified by Eviews software Using the time series model to forecast the energy consumption of Ningxia in the future, the simulation results are close to the real value and the error rate is low, and the prediction effect is better.