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目的探索累积和法模型在流感样病例早期预警中的应用。方法全年在北京市密云区21家一级以上医疗单位发热门诊及内科、儿科的门急诊开展流感样病例监测,在密云区医院发热门诊开展流感病原学监测,对符合流感样病例定义并且发病3d以内且3d内未服用过抗病毒药物的流感样病例进行咽拭子标本采集。利用密云区2014年33周至2015年18周流行季的流感样病例监测数据,采用CUSUM模型对数据进行分析,与流感病原学监测数据和集中发热疫情进行对比分析。结果流感样病例监测数据显示2014年密云区流感样病例流行高峰的起始时间为第45周,流感病原学监测数据显示在第46周开始流行,CUSUM模型在第44周发出预警信号,全年C1、C2、C3同时发出预警信号30次,集中发热疫情发生18起,全部在C1、C2、C3发生预警信号期间。结论利用累积和法模型,能有效地对流感进行早期预警。
Objective To explore the application of cumulative sum method in early warning of influenza-like illness. Methods Influenza-like cases were monitored in fever clinics, internal medicine and pediatrics outpatients in more than 21 medical units in Miyun district, Beijing during the year. Influenza etiology was monitored in fever clinics in Miyun district hospitals. Influenza- Throat swab specimens were collected from flu-like cases within 3 days and within 3 days of not having taken antiviral drugs. Using the surveillance data of influenza-like cases from 33 weeks in 2014 to 18 in 2015 in Miyun District, the data were analyzed by CUSUM model and compared with the results of influenza etiology monitoring data and concentrated fever. Results The surveillance data of influenza-like cases showed that the peak time of influenza-like cases in Miyun district began in the 45th week in 2014. Influenza etiology monitoring data showed that it began to prevail in the 46th week. The CUSUM model issued an early warning signal in the 44th week. C1, C2, C3 also issued an early warning signal 30 times, concentrated fever outbreak occurred 18, all in C1, C2, C3 during the warning signal. Conclusion The cumulative sum method model can effectively predict the flu early.