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目的预测莱芜市肺结核的发病趋势,为制定防控措施提供科学依据。方法根据莱芜市2005—2014肺结核报告发病率,建立GM(1,1)模型预测莱芜市肺结核发病趋势。结果莱芜市肺结核发病数的GM(1,1)预测模型为^x(1)k+1=(x(0)1-μ/α)e-ok+μ/α=-516.30e-0.0599k+556.18,拟合检验显示本模型拟合精度好(C=0.20,P=1),预测2015年和2016年莱芜市肺结核发病率分别为18.95/10万和17.59/10万。结论通过肺结核病发病率预测模型,我市肺结核病发病率的实际值与预测值基本吻合,可用于预测。
Objective To predict the incidence of tuberculosis in Laiwu City and provide a scientific basis for making prevention and control measures. Methods Based on the reported incidence of tuberculosis in Laiwu City from 2005 to 2014, a GM (1,1) model was established to predict the incidence of tuberculosis in Laiwu City. Results The GM (1,1) predictive model for the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Laiwu city was: x (1) k + 1 = (x (0) 1-μ / α) e-ok + μ / α = -516.30e-0.0599k +556.18. The fitting test showed that the fitting accuracy of this model was good (C = 0.20, P = 1). The incidence rates of pulmonary tuberculosis in Laiwu City in 2015 and 2016 were estimated to be 18.95 / 100,000 and 17.59 / 100,000 respectively. Conclusion According to the prediction model of tuberculosis incidence, the actual value of tuberculosis incidence in our city is in good agreement with the predicted value and can be used for prediction.