根据1996～2009年中国统计年鉴的数据,利用逐步线性回归建立了我国民用汽车保有量的预测模型,检验结果表明模型回归效果良好。通过对模型进行的分析可知,我国民用汽车保有量的主要影响因素是交通运输业的发展。 According to the data of China Statistical Yearbook from 1996 to 2009, the forecasting model of domestic car ownership is established by means of stepwise linear regression. The test results show that the model returns well. Through the analysis of the model we can see that the main factor affecting the ownership of civilian vehicles in China is the development of the transportation industry.