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面对 90年代以来日本的深刻变化 ,不少学者提出了日本正在进行近代以来“第三次转型”的看法。本文作者认为 ,现在日本的转折乃是近代以来继明治维新、大正民主改革、战后改革之后的第四次转折。虽然从形式上看 ,第一次与第三次转折规定了日本发展的不同方向 ,第二次与第四次转折具有否定以前发展方向的性质 ,但由于后者是在原有体制内的变革和转折 ,难以完成自己的使命。因此 ,经过这次转折之后 ,2 1世纪上半叶的日本将仍处于战后和平发展路线的延长线上。
Faced with the profound changes in Japan since the 1990s, many scholars have put forward the view that Japan is carrying out the “third transition” in modern times. The author of the article believes that the present turning point in Japan is the fourth turning point since the modern times following the reforms of the Meiji Reform, the Dazheng Democratic Reform and post-war reforms. Although formally, the first and third transitions set forth the different directions for Japan’s development, the second and the forth transitions have the negative nature of the previous development. However, since the latter is a change within the existing system and Turning point, it is difficult to complete their mission. Therefore, after this turning point, Japan in the first half of the 21st century will still be on the extension line of the postwar peace and development route.