2015年第一季度名义经济增长下落至5.82%,当季GDP平减指数为-1.17,这是过去30年中第三次进入收缩状态。实际利率维持在高位甚至出现上行趋势,债务通缩螺旋式上升的可能性是存在的。减息周期从去年六七月就可能开始了,不过当时央行主要通过一些资产工具的创新,在货币市场推低利率。至2014年11月,央行才正式降息。近期,国际油价反弹、美欧长端利率短时间大幅上涨属短期扰动,全球 Nominal economic growth in the first quarter of 2015 dropped to 5.82% and the seasonal GDP deflator was -1.17, the third contraction in the past 30 years. The real interest rate remained high or even upward trend, the possibility of spiraling debt deflation exists. The cycle of interest rate cuts may start in June or July last year, but at that time the central bank pushed the interest rate down in the money market mainly through the innovation of some asset instruments. By November 2014, the central bank formally cut interest rates. Recently, the international oil price rebounded, the United States and Europe long-term interest rates rose sharply for a short period of short-term disturbance, global