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截至2011年底,日本的国家债务总额对国内生产总值之比已经攀升至200%以上,但在全世界都陷入债务危机恐慌的背景下,日本的国债收益率却不升反降。日本能够维持高债务低利率的原因在于,大多数债务由国内持有,为经常账户盈余、高家庭储蓄率、谨慎的金融机构和资金充裕的企业所支撑。由于老龄化加剧、经济增长乏力以及通货紧缩前景不容乐观等一系列原因,按照目前的趋势发展,日本债务在长期内不可持续。近期日本出现的自然灾害、贸易赤字、储蓄率下降等现象,已经开始动摇其债务稳定的根基,提高了日本爆发债务危机的可能性。
As of the end of 2011, Japan’s national debt to GDP ratio has risen to more than 200%, but in the context of the world into a debt crisis panic, Japan’s bond yields rose instead of rising and falling. The reason Japan is able to maintain its high debt and low interest rates is that most of the debt is held domestically and is supported by current account surpluses, high household saving rates, prudent financial institutions and well-funded enterprises. Due to a series of reasons, such as the aggravating aging, sluggish economic growth and the unfavorable outlook for deflation, Japan’s debt is unsustainable in the long run in light of the current trend. The recent appearances of natural disasters, trade deficits and savings rates in Japan have begun to destabilize their debt and raise the possibility of a debt crisis in Japan.