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本文以发达国家贸易状态的长期数据为基础,对“浮动汇率会实现贸易自动均衡”的理论提出质疑,并在比较马克思与西方经典贸易理论的基础上,根据马克思资本积累和扩大再生产理论,提出了从一国内部经济结构角度认识贸易状态的观点。在主要资本主义国家贸易状态历史事实的基础上概括出了工业化市场国家必然显现出的两个基本特征:一是对投资从而对高储蓄率的依赖,二是对外需的依赖。基础数据和计量分析的结果支持这些结论。这一理论认识对美英持续贸易逆差和日本、德国和中国持续的贸易顺差提供了一个内部经济结构的解释,对中国经济发展和对外贸易也具有政策意义。
Based on the long-term data of developed countries’ trade status, this article questions the theory that “floating exchange rate will achieve trade equilibrium automatically”. On the basis of comparing the classic trade theory between Marx and Western countries, according to Marx’s capital accumulation and expansion of reproduction theory , Put forward the viewpoints of understanding the state of trade from the perspective of the internal economic structure of a country. Based on the historical fact of the trade states of the major capitalist countries, two basic characteristics which inevitably emerge from industrialized market countries are summarized: firstly, the dependence on investment for the high savings rate; and second, the dependence on external demand. The results of the underlying data and econometric analyzes support these conclusions. This understanding of the theory provides an explanation of the internal economic structure of the ongoing trade deficit between the United States and Britain and the ongoing trade surplus of Japan, Germany and China and also has policy significance for China’s economic development and foreign trade.