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以武汉城市圈为例,通过构建城乡道路网供需系统耦合作用关联模型和系统动力学仿真模型,实证研究了1995—2013年武汉城市圈城乡道路网供需系统的耦合作用机制,并动态模拟了供需系统的3种耦合作用情景,结果显示:119年来,武汉城市圈城乡道路网需求系统对供给系统的带动作用直接体现在以第二产业为主的经济结构、生活水平日益提高之下的民用汽车拥有量的线性增长、生活环境的逐步改善以及人口规模的逐渐增大等众多方面上;219年来,武汉城市圈城乡道路网供给系统对需求系统的促进作用一方面体现在路网的不断建设、改造升级,使得城乡道路网的等级水平与供给规模越来越高,对经济发展所需资源的运力不断增强上,另一方面则表现在单位时间所达距离增大带来的成本递减上;3基于系统动力学的供需系统演化模拟清晰地刻画出了至2020年武汉城市圈城乡道路网系统的发展图景,其中交通带动经济快速发展型很好的实现了武汉城市圈将交通优势转化为经济发展强势的愿景。
Taking Wuhan metropolitan area as an example, this paper empirically studies the coupling mechanism of urban and rural road network supply and demand system in Wuhan city circle from 1995 to 2013 through the construction of coupling model and system dynamics simulation model of supply and demand system of urban and rural road network, and dynamically simulates the interaction between supply and demand System, the results show that in 119 years, the driving force of the demand system of urban and rural road network in Wuhan city circle on the supply system is directly reflected in the economic structure with the secondary industry as the mainstay, and the living standard of the civilian vehicle The linear increase of the amount of ownership, the gradual improvement of living environment and the gradual increase of population size. In the past 219 years, the promotion of demand system by urban and rural road network supply system in Wuhan urban circle is reflected in the continuous construction of road network, Upgrading and upgrading make the level and supply scale of rural and urban road networks become higher and higher, the capacity for resources for economic development is on the rise, and on the other hand, the cost of increasing the distance per unit time is reduced. 3 Based on the system dynamics of supply and demand system evolution simulation clearly depicts the 2020 Wuhan City Circle City Picture of the development of the road network system, which led to rapid economic development of the traffic type to achieve a good Wuhan city circle the transportation advantages into economic development of a strong vision.