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为获得荆南长江干堤的安全特性,在层次分析法及模糊一致理论的基础上,考虑堤防工程水、土两相系材料的特点,建立了模糊综合评判系统结构模型。通过正态型模糊隶属函数,结合两种权值理论实现了对堤防工程的安全综合评判。在模糊综合评判结论的基础上,结合模式识别的间接方法,提出了广义多维加权模糊识别模型,实现了对典型堤身段的安全模式识别,并对模型指标体系作了敏感性分析。所得成果比较全面地反映了干堤在复杂运行条件下的综合安全特性,对指导工程现场管理与监测有现实意义。对于复杂堤防系统,模糊综合评判是实现全面风险分析的有效手段,而广义多维加权模糊识别模型可以为工程安全决策提供有力依据。
In order to obtain the safety characteristics of the main embankment of Jingnan Yangtze River, based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy consensus theory, taking into account the characteristics of the materials of water and earth facies in dike engineering, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation system structural model is established. Through the normal fuzzy membership function, combined with two weight theory to achieve the safety of embankment project comprehensive evaluation. Based on the conclusion of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, combined with the indirect method of pattern recognition, a generalized multidimensional weighted fuzzy recognition model is proposed to realize the safe pattern recognition of typical embankment sections. The sensitivity analysis of the model index system is also made. The results obtained comprehensively reflect the comprehensive safety features of dry dike under complex operating conditions and are of practical significance to guide the management and monitoring of the project site. For complex embankment system, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is an effective way to achieve comprehensive risk analysis. However, the generalized multidimensional weighted fuzzy identification model can provide a strong basis for engineering safety decision-making.