本文介绍了马尔可夫链的基础理论概念,在对建立与应用预测模型所需要的状态向量和转移概率矩阵两个基本概念的基础上,利用马尔可夫链对中国搜索引擎市场主要品牌的市场占有率进行预测,并较详细的分析了百度应采取的应对策略。 This paper introduces the concept of the basic theory of Markov chain. Based on two basic concepts of the state vector and the transition probability matrix needed to build and apply the forecasting model, this paper uses Markov chain to analyze the market of major brands in China’s search engine market Share of the forecast, and a more detailed analysis of the countermeasures Baidu should take.